Fantasy Football Research
Lets be better than a coin toss
"In poker, you never play the hand. You play the man across from you" - James Bond, Casino Royale
Up until now, Fantasy Football coverage has focused on playing the hand, who to draft, who to start or sit each week, which players should you trade for. Advice like this is available anywhere and therefore will not be covered here. Instead, I focus on the man across from you. Should you trust projections or go with your gut? should you draft zero rb or robust rb? How do your league settings affect your approach? By analyzing 1000's of fantasy football managers I am trying to answer these questions while building products that leverage this information to create personalized insights about YOUR league. Check out my fantasy tools for the latest interactive resources. Or read my recent posts for my latest insights. Finally, look through answers to some common fantasy football questions below.
Fantasy League Report
Fantasy League Report provides personalized analysis about your ESPN fantasy football league. A web app tracks and analyzes historical data from your league while weekly automated reports provides matchup recaps and power rankings
League Settings vs Positional Value
In order to properly evaluate players, you have to understand how your league's unique settings change a player's value. PPR, QB td value, number of starting wrs. All of these affect the relative value of a position. This web app allows you to explore many of the common settings to adjust your player rankings to your specific league
My Recent Posts
Common Fantasy Football Questions
How Accurate are ESPN's Projections?
Espn's Projections get a bad rap as everyone takes them as a guarentee as to what will happen, when in reality they are a best guess. And while ESPN's projections are far from perfect (missing the optimal lineup by close to 20 points each week), they consistently outperform the average fantasy manager by 3 points, which results in one more win on average.
Is Fantasy Football All Luck?
While luck certainly plays a role, at most, luck with who you play each week and whether your players hit shifts your teams win total by 2 wins in either direction. And that is when you sum it up over an entire season. That said, when we look year to year, we find that skill accounts for about 20% of year to year performance. To learn more check out:
How Do My League Settings Change My Strategy?
Obviously, Every league is different. And different scoring and roster settings will change how you should approach a league. For instance, PPR makes wide receivers more valuable, and having 2 QB slots in your starting roster increases QB value. But How Much? and How would that change your draft strategy? The following posts attempt to address this:
What players were most common on championship teams in 2020?
for a list of which players were most/least common on playoff and championship teams, Check out: Championship Players 2020: Which players won or lost your fantasy football championships
What Draft Strategies worked in 2020?
For a review on 2020 Draft strategies, such as should you have gone zero rb? or stars and scrubs in an auction? check out:
What is the purpose of Start Sit Articles?
After looking at start sit advice articles from 7 different sources, I've found that the start sit article does not provide better information than ESPN's projections. Instead they should be viewed as in depth justification for any ESPN projection that seems either higher or lower than expected.
How important are sleepers and busts?
Everyone is interested in finding the next sleeper and avoiding the next bust. In these posts I explore just how sleepers and busts affect your championship odds, how predictable are they? and what are some indicators to look out for.
Should you Stack Players during your draft?
I find no difference between your teams performance whether you drafted a stack or a comparable player that is not stacked. Note this is opposition to research done by establish the run which used different methods.